Disconcerting States #11
13th November 2024. Wednesday. Day Eleven.
By John Dean
What he promised. What he’ll do. What could happen. President Elect, Donald Trump.
The second term in office a US President often goes for it. He strives to the utmost to gain or achieve something. This is their time to make hay while the sun shines. That is, until the mid-terms — which can go against the President and limit his ability to control.
Remember, a US President’s leadership time is limited.
Remember how Franklin Delano Roosevelt held it four times. He was the only person to do what’s likely the hardest job in the world more than twice — through the Great Depression and then WW2.
But this was unusual. Well, not totally…
That is, FDR was the Doctor who helped beat the Depression and then win the war. He proclaimed himself as Old Dr. New Deal and then Dr. Win the War.
As FDR said in a December 1943 press conference, he used a medical metaphor to justify his leadership’s prolongation.
To quote Franklin Delano Roosevelt from this 1943 press conference:
“It was because there was an awfully sick patient called the United States of America, and it was suffering from a grave internal disorder—awfully sick—all kinds of things had happened to this patient, all internal things.
And they sent for the doctor. And it was long, long process—took several years before those ills, in that particular illness of ten years ago, were remedied. But after a while they were remedied. . . .
Two years ago, on the seventh of December [1941], he was in a pretty bad smashup—broke his hip, broke his leg in two or three places, broke a wrist and an arm, some ribs; and they didn’t think he would live, for a while.
And then he began to ‘come to’; and he has been in [the] charge of a partner of the old doctor. Old Dr. New Deal didn’t know ‘nothing’ about legs and arms. He knew a great deal about internal medicine, but nothing about surgery. So he got his partner, who was an orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Win-the-War, to take care of this fellow who had been in this bad accident.
And the result is that the patient is back on his feet. He has given up his crutches. He isn’t wholly well yet, and he won’t be until he wins the war.”
The metaphor is there’s a president who claims he’s done wonders first time around. And he will repeat those wonders a second time.
Enter D. J. Trump.
He was good old Dr. Make America Great Again. And now for his come back he’ll be Dr. Make America Win the War Against Economic and Immigration Woes.
President-elect Trump promises to be a new, radical surgeon who will cure America of its current weaknesses — as seen and understood in his mind and in that of his supporters. The majority of Americans — his patients — vigorously accept his treatment.
So, for the record, here’s who the new president is in terms of dates, facts & figure, and —more importantly — what Trump promises he shall do.
Fact.
Donald J. Trump (b. June 14, 1946): 45th US President, in office January 20, 2017—January 20, 2021. Then: 47th US President, in office January 20, 2025 — until January 20, 2028.
That is ’28, as the French say, en principe, technically and normally.
What if President Trump could change the Constitution? He’s done some mighty outrageous things already. But technically and normally, he’s limited.
Fiction (because it hasn’t happened yet).
Here are all the things to get ready for since — while campaigning for the 2024 election — President un-elected Donald J. Trump said that he was going to do.
These are the US government’s and cultural structural limitations he promised he will break or fundamentally restructure
Immigration: He promised to implement “the largest mass deportation program in history” — which will target undocumented immigrants.
2. On Economy and Trade:
He will impose tariffs on imported goods, ranging from 10% to 60%, specially on Chinese imports.
He will lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%.
He will eliminate federal income taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors.
He will end taxes on tips and overtime pay.
3. Regarding Foreign Policy:
He vowed to end the war in Ukraine quickly. He claimed he could do so within 24 hours once he became President.
He will also pursue an “America First” foreign policy agenda.
To begin to understand what this means, listen to what the National Interest, published by the DC Center for the National Interest with its lean right bias, said (on Oct. 31, 2024) defending Trump’s “America First” position:
Trump’s “ ‘America First’ as practiced was the appropriate response to America’s shrinking margin for geopolitical error: open an exit from Afghanistan; avoid squandering resources and attention on new conflicts of the periphery; punish free-riding allies; focus on competition with China; and seek deals with America’s traditional adversaries. Donald Trump was the first president since Jimmy Carter not to ensnare the US in a new overseas conflict.”
4. For Energy and the Environment:
He affirmed that he will increase fossil fuel production and roll back environmental regulations.
He will repeal Biden’s electric vehicle incentives and fuel efficiency standards.
5. Regarding Education:
President-elect Trump pledged to eliminate the US Department of Education, whose origins date back to 1867.
He will push for merit pay for teachers and abolish tenure.
Note, please, that at current US college and university level, about twenty-four percent of people get tenured appointments. That’s compared to thirty-nine percent in 1987. Thus his idea is to remove the special continuity that tenure can provide.
People from business generally see tenured professors as dead wood. Good tenured professors see themselves as holding the line, maintaining the institution’s existing and developing qualities.
Meanwhile, in secondary or lower eduction, it is estimated that more than eight percent of teachers quit every year. This percentage is significantly higher in some parts of the USA since the Covid-19 pandemic. So boost them with merit pay is the way, says the new president.
6. Healthcare:
He has guaranteed that he will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (that is, “Obamacare”). He generally detests whatever Obama helped create.
Note, the problem is that about fifty million Americans have been covered through Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act’s health insurance marketplaces) over the last decade. So if you take this away, what do you provide?
7. On Civil Rights and Social Issues:
He vowed that he will roll back diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs in government institutions
He will implement anti-LGBTQ+ policies, particularly regarding transgender rights.
8. Executive Power:
Trump swore to expand presidential authority over federal agencies and the bureaucracy.
He promised to implement Schedule F to make it easier to fire federal employees.
That is — Schedule F — this would make it easier for him, or any subsequent president, to install their own political party people in government positions. This would have subsequent potentially authoritarian results.
Schedule F’s source?
In October 2020, the Administration of President Trump issued an executive order that would have stripped protections from civil servants perceived as disloyal to the president and encouraged expressions of allegiance to the president when hiring.
It is referred to as “Schedule F” because that was the name of the new employment category that the executive order created.
9. Law Enforcement:
He assured voters that he would use the Department of Justice to investigate political rivals.
US Liberals and others traditionally call t his a “witch hunt”.
That is, to quote the American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, fifth edition, © 2016: “An investigation carried out ostensibly to uncover subversive activities but actually used to harass and undermine those with differing views.”
10. Military:
He swore he would expand military spending and implement a missile defense system.
Finally and in summary, please remember people, that implementing many of these proposals requires a process.
It begins with proposals implemented through the president. Then there’s congressional approval (or not). Which then faces legal challenges (or not). Which then goes through the US court system up to the Supreme Court for a “Yay or Nay” decision.
But it looks like President-elect Trump’s control on this process is stronger than ever.
As Shakespeare said, there’s the rub.
